'Brexit' Vote: What You Need to Know About Britain's Referendum on Leaving EU

by Mac William Bishop and Alastair Jamieson

Behind the Brexit: Why the U.K. Might Leave the E.U.

LONDON — Britons were voting Thursday on whether or not to quit the European Union in a divisive and bitter national referendum, with polls suggesting the result is on a knife-edge.
The "Brexit" debate, in which Britons weigh the strategic and trade benefits of bloc membership against costly European bureaucracy and the erosion of national sovereignty, was overshadowed by last week's murder of pro-EU lawmaker Jo Cox.

Image: Two activists with the EU and U.K. flags kiss in Berlin

Activists with the EU and U.K. flags painted on their faces kiss in Berlin to protest against a potential "Brexit" on June 19. HANNIBAL HANSCHKE / Reuters

President Barack Obama has warned that the outcome of Thursday's referendum is "of deep interest to the United States" as well as a possible turning point for Europe.

The closeness of the race has spooked Prime Minister David Cameron's aides — and financial markets, where stocks fell and the pound sterling remains comparatively weak in response to the uncertainty.

Two opinion polls Monday suggested support for Britain staying in the European Union had recovered some ground following Cox's murder, but a third poll found support for a "Brexit" still ahead by a whisker. The Financial Times Brexit poll-of-polls tracker on Tuesday had the outcome as a dead heat.

Both sides have been making a last-minute appeal to voters. Soccer star David Beckham on Tuesday voiced his support for Britain to remain in the EU, while Virgin business tycoon Richard Branson took out a full-page advertisement in the Daily Mail to say the U.K. was "better off" in Europe.
Here's what you need to know about "Brexit."

What is at stake?

In short, the future of Europe and the global order. Britain is the EU's second-largest economy, has a powerful military and exerts outsize influence in global affairs; it would be difficult to interpret "Brexit" as anything other than abandonment of the EU by one of its most important members.
Obama last month urged British voters to remain in the EU because its economic growth and counter-terrorism efforts will be "far more effective" with the U.K. as a member. But that intervention earned him a rebuke from some senior figures, including the mayor of London who said the president's position was "perverse."

Image: Barack Obama in London on April 23, 2016

President Barack Obama answers questions at an event in London on April 23. JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP - Getty Images

Some predict a domino effect as other EU members consider their own departures, fearing an EU without Britain would be economically dominated by Germany. Countries such as Spain could also be forced to make hundreds of millions of extra dollars in annual contributions as budgets are realigned. A structural crisis is the last thing Europe needs amid the biggest refugee crisis since World War Two, intractable economic woes and a nebulous security threat from international terrorism.

With only two days to go before the vote, PM Cameron said his country faced "an irreversible decision" on Europe. "There is no going back" from Brexit, he warned.

Why does it matter for the United States?

The United States advocates a strong, stable Europe. Even a smooth "Brexit" would see Washington building a new relationship with both Britain and a Britain-free remainder of the EU. However, some observers fear the rump of the EU could begin to unravel, weakening America's allies and bringing instability.

Despite a weakened "special relationship" between Washington and London, Britain remains America's primary transatlantic military ally and its role in Europe is strategically important to the U.S.

Why is this happening now?

British Prime Minister David Cameron is fulfilling an election promise to negotiate a better deal for his country in the European Union and to put the new terms to a national vote. It was an act of political expediency aimed at uniting two factions within of his Conservative party, which for decades has been bitterly divided over the issue of Europe.

An uptick in immigration and a long period of austerity have eroded British enthusiasm for the EU.
The trading bloc is arguably the modern world's first attempt at creating a "superstate" — a collection of nations that have agreed to give up meaningful aspects of their sovereignty in exchange for greater collective security and economic development.

Image: British Prime Minister David Cameron

British Prime Minister David Cameron is leading the "In" campaign. Alex B. Huckle / Getty Images

A series of treaties have given courts and politicians in Brussels the power to change national laws and bring them in line with European standards. Up to 55 percent of Britain's laws and regulations are now set by Europe.

This forfeiture of national authority lies at the root of concern among many British voters.

How could it affect the U.S. election?

A perceived dissolution of the European Union would reinforce the isolationist views of many conservative Americans on the right. Politicians like Donald Trump would likely pounce on a "Brexit" as a reinforcement of the worldview he has championed on the campaign trail — that Europe is weak and its institutions are unable to cope with the realities of the modern age, and that border controls, protectionist trade policies and a reassertion of national sovereignty are essential to deal with the chaos of the outside world.

Meanwhile, internationalists — who in American politics are generally on the left, although there are pockets on the right as well — could only view this as a discouraging development.

Isn't Britain already separate from Europe?

Britain has long had a love-hate relationship with the EU. While it has supported the European bloc at key moments of its development, it has also kept the project at arm's length in major areas and has negotiated the most opt-outs of any member state.

In particular, it is a member of neither the euro currency zone — it retains the pound sterling — nor the border-free Schengen zone that allows travel without a passport.

Who are the key players?

Cameron is fulfilling his campaign promise — but has forcefully advocated in favor of Britain staying in the EU, along with left-leaning Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn.

They've been batting up against the "Leave" campaign championed by the likes of Boris Johnson, former mayor of London and Cameron's one-time friend at Oxford University.

Perhaps the most public face of the "Leave" campaign however is Nigel Farage — the folksy leader of the UK Independence Party which has been a refuge for immigration-wary Britons.

Nigel Farage, leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party. YVES HERMAN / Reuters

Who will win the referendum?

Opinion is almost evenly split. As of Tuesday, a Financial Times poll tracker had support for "In" averaging 44 percent — the exact same figure as "Out." With 12 percent undecided, it means both campaigns have all to play for and the result could be uncomfortably close for Cameron. However, one betting store last week said it had taken a $50,000 wager that Britain would narrowly choose to "Remain."

What happens next?

Polls close Thursday at 10 p.m. (5 p.m. ET) and the result should be known by early Friday. Voters will be asked: "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?" They will tick a box against either "Remain a member of the European Union" or "Leave the European Union." The result will be decided by a simple majority, based on total votes.
A "Brexit" would be uncharted territory as no nation state has ever left the EU — although Greenland, an overseas territory of Denmark, quit in 1982.

A contentious issue in the campaign has been trade deals. "Out" campaigners say Britain could easily trade with the likes of the U.S. on its own terms. However, Obama specifically warned that Britain would "go to the back of queue" behind EU member states in negotiating new trade deals if it voted to quit.

A leading concern, especially among blue-collar voters, has been immigration — not only from the recent influx of refugees but also from Europeans taking advantage of rules allowing free movement within member states.

The economic impact of "Brexit" has also been hotly debated, with Britain's finance secretary threatening an emergency budget of tax increases and spending cuts if voters choose to quit the EU.

The history of the EU

There have been numerous attempts to create workable institutions that superseded national interests. The first serious attempt came in the wake of World War I. That bloody conflict reinforced the view among internationalists of the day that a binding pact among the nations of the world was necessary to maintain peace and stability. This resulted in the League of Nations, which died an unhappy death amid the rise of militant nationalist regimes in Europe and Asia in the 1930s.

A pro-"Brexit" campaigner smiles during an event in London on Feb. 19. NIKLAS HALLE'N / AFP - Getty Images

The next serious attempt came at the end of the most disastrous conflict in human history, the Second World War. The United Nations was founded in 1945. Despite serious flaws in its conception — it was largely designed as a vehicle for maintaining the postwar geopolitical order — it continues chugging along.

The U.N. has evolved into a sprawling bureaucracy with a lot of "soft influence," but no hard power. Lacking in mechanisms for enforcement should any of its five permanent security council members disagree with the others, the U.N. has proven unable to carry out its primary function: stopping conflicts.

Enter the most recent attempt to shift power away from the nation state, the European Union. The EU has its roots in the Cold War, when Europe was dominated by the nuclear superpowers of the late 20th century, the United States and the Soviet Union.

With the horrors of the Second World War still fresh in their minds, a collection of European intellectuals and politicians fought for the creation of an organization that transcended the ethno-nationalist rivalries, which had led to so much bloodshed.

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